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重庆大学经济学教授,重庆市首席专家(经济学),长江学者特聘教授。诺丁汉大学当代中国学学院创建院长,经济学教授,著名华裔经济学家,复旦大学和西安交通大学特聘讲座教授,全英中国专业团体联和会副主席,联合国开发计划署和世界银行经济顾问, 到过20个亚非欧国家工作。

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亚投行是世界经济重心东移的里程碑   

2015-07-01 23:37:13|  分类: 默认分类 |  标签: |举报 |字号 订阅

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       http://world.chinadaily.com.cn/2015-06/30/content_21145207.htm

中国日报网, 姚树洁 2015-06-30 17:58:56

http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/opinion/2015-06/30/content_21140139.htm

By Shujie Yao (chinadaily.com.cn)Updated: 2015-06-30 09:25

专家:亚投行是世界经济重心东移的里程碑

6月29日,中国财政部部长楼继伟(台上中)作为中方授权代表签署《亚洲基础设施投资银行协定》。 当日,亚洲基础设施投资银行(亚投行)的57个意向创始成员国代表在北京出席《亚洲基础设施投资银行协定》签署仪式,标志着成立亚投行及其日后运营有了各方共同遵守的“基本大法”,迈出筹建最关键的一步。 (新华社记者 李鑫 摄)

亚投行是世界经济重心东移的里程碑 - 姚树洁 - 姚树洁的博客

 

中国日报网6月30日电, 重庆大学和诺丁汉大学经济学教授姚树洁日前在中国日报网撰写评论,指出亚投行的建立表明了中国、印度等发展中国家经济体的快速崛起,世界金融和政治秩序开始改变,世界经济重心正在从西方向东方转移,亚投行将成为加速亚洲经济和社会发展的强力助推器。

以下是文章内容摘编:

2015年6月29日,57个国家金融部门的负责人齐聚北京,出席《亚洲基础设施投资银行协定》签署仪式。亚洲基础设施投资银行 (亚投行)料将成为21世纪该地区最大的投资银行。

70年前,在美国及其西方政治经济亲密盟友的主导下,首个全球性金融机构——世界银行——建立了。西方大国通过世界银行及世界贸易组织(WTO)和国际货币基金组织(IMF)已经主导世界金融和贸易秩序超过半个世纪。就连世界银行建立20年后创建的亚洲开发银行(ADB)也主要是受日本掌控,日本则有美国和其他西方经济大国做后盾。

在改革开放之初,中国从上述全球和地区性的发展金融机构获得了帮助。随着时间的推移,中国的经济实力得到了提升,中国在资金方面对上述机构贡献巨大。尽管最近几年中国在这些机构中的出资份额大幅提升,但在管理和运营方面,中国影响力仍很有限。在这些金融机构的管理结构中,中国不仅是占少数股份的股东,而且投票权被忽视。

美国次贷危机和欧洲债务危机引发的世界金融危机发生后,中国在世界经济中的相对重要性日益凸显。2010年,中国超越日本成为世界第二大经济体,到2012年,中国超越美国成为世界最大贸易国、最大汽车生产国和消费国。

除了拥有顶级加工制造能力,中国持有世界上最大的外汇储备,这些储备须被有效地利用,并对亚洲——世界上最大和发展最为迅速的地区——的基础设施发展做出应有的贡献。

另外,中国、印度、俄罗斯和其他亚投行创始成员国有资金和管理方面的实力和信心,创建一个新的、类似于世界银行和亚洲开发银行的金融机构。亚投行的初始法定股本为1000亿美元,中国同意出资29.7%,印度同意出资8.3%,俄罗斯6.5%,德国4.4%,韩国3.75%。其他主要出资国还有英国、澳大利亚和印度尼西亚。

美国和日本还没有表达加入亚投行的意愿,不过美国许多政治和经济盟友,如英国、德国、法国、意大利和澳大利亚,已经来北京签署亚投行协定。这些国家将注意力从美国转向中国和亚洲,不仅反映出亚洲的商业机会在日益增多,也反映出以美国为首的西方世界对全球经济和金融秩序影响力在下降。

经济重心从西方转移到东方使我回忆起了我过往的经历。30年前,也就是1985年,我获得了世界银行的奖学金,得以从海南一所大学前往英国学习。那个时候,中国大学讲师的工资还不足英国同行的1%。如今,中国所有985学校和部分211学校,都能够提供与美国或英国相当的薪水,吸引海外人才来中国工作。此外,中国许多大学的教师都能比较容易地申请到比西方同行多的研究资金。

尽管根据定义中国仍然属于发展中经济体,但是在设备制造、高速铁路、核能、建筑、基础设施工程、空间技术等领域,中国已经超越许多西方大国。中国科学家在有影响力的学术期刊上发表论文的数量居世界第二。

中国开建第一条高速铁路的时间比欧洲晚了30年,但是到2014年,中国高铁的运营里程已达到1.6万公里,是所有欧洲国家总里程的两倍。中国民营汽车制造商比亚迪已经进军美国加州,为当地市场生产电动巴士。

印度紧随中国脚步。2014年,印度经济增长同中国一样迅速,2015年预计将超过中国。但是,印度的运输系统如此糟糕,大幅限制了印度的发展野心。印度预计将需要1万亿美元来改善其运输系统,亚投行的建立对印度的发展需求是有益的。其他亚洲国家在投资建设公路、铁路、机场、海港、电信设施和互联网方面,也面临着相似的问题。

亚投行将成为加速亚洲经济和社会发展的强力助推器。像丝路基金和金砖银行一样,亚投行将助力中国推行其“一带一路”地区和全球发展战略。

“丝绸之路经济带”和“21世纪海上丝绸之路”将覆盖中国周边60多个国家,而其中许多国家将从中国外向型投资和发展战略中获益。在习近平的领导下,得益于中国一直推行的和平合作、互利共赢和共同繁荣外交政策,中国将从亚洲邻国以及拉美、欧洲和非洲许多国家获得越来越多的支持。

诚然,亚投行的未来运营可能会面临许多挑战和不确定性,但是,亚投行表明了中国、印度和其他发展中和过渡经济体的快速崛起。这些国家坚信亚投行和其他新创建的金融机构能够获得成功,这显示出世界金融和政治秩序将从现在开始改变,世界银行和亚洲开发银行在亚洲以及世界金融体系的主导地位未来将不可避免走向衰落。

(编译:刘世东)

英文原文链接请点击

AIIB shows center of world economic gravity moving

http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/opinion/2015-06/30/content_21140139.htm

By Shujie Yao (chinadaily.com.cn)Updated: 2015-06-30 09:25

AIIB shows center of world economic gravity moving east

Chinese President Xi Jinping (C, front) poses for a group photo with the delegates attending the signing ceremony for the Articles of Agreement of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing June 29, 2015. [Photo/Agencies]

Financial leaders of 57 states gathered in Beijing on June 29 to sign the agreement for establishing the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), expected to become the region’s largest investment bank in the 21st century.

Seventy years ago, the World Bank was established, led by the US and its close western economic and political allies, as the first global financial institution. Along with the World Trade Organization and the International Monetary Fund, the western powers have commanded world financial and trade order for more than half a century. Even the Asian Development Bank (ADB), established 20 years later after the World Bank, has been largely controlled by Japan, backed by the US and other western economic powers.

China benefited from the global and regional development and financial institutions in the initial stage of economic reform and openness. As China expanded its economic strength it has aggressively contributed to financing them. However, despite its financial contribution to these institutions rising significantly China still has limited influence over management and operation.

China’s desire to influence world financial order and its inability to do so have been due to the governance structure of these institutions where China is not only a minority shareholder but its voting rights are marginalized.

Since the world financial crisis, triggered by the US subprime mortgage crisis and the EU’s debt problem, China’s relative importance in the world economy has risen rapidly. By 2010, it surpassed Japan to become the world’s second largest economy, and by 2012 it overtook the US to become the world largest trading nation as well as the largest producer and consumer of motor vehicles.

Apart from China’s second-to-none manufacturing capability, it holds the world’s largest foreign exchange reserves which have to be used effectively so they can generate a financial return and make appropriate contributions to infrastructural development in Asia, the largest and fastest growing region among all continents.

In addition, China, India, Russia and other initial AIIB member states have the financial strength and managerial confidence to create a new financial institution similar to the World Bank and ADB. For the initial $100 billion fund to be pledged, China has agreed to contribute 29.7 percent, India 8.3 percent, Russia 6.5 percent, Germany 4.4 percent and South Korea 3.75 percent. Other major contributors include the UK, Australia and Indonesia.

Both the US and Japan have not expressed their intention to join AIIB although many US political and economic allies have come to Beijing to sign the agreement, particularly the UK, Germany, France, Italy and Australia. The diversion of these countries' attention away from the US to China and Asia not only reflects ever rising business opportunities in Asia, but also the relative decline of the US-led western influence on the global economy and financial order.

The apparent shift of economic gravity from the West to the East reminds me of my personal experience in the past. Thirty year ago, I was awarded a World Bank scholarship from a university in Hainan to study in the UK in 1985. At that time, the salary of a Chinese university lecturer was less than 1 percent of his UK counterpart. Today, all the top Chinese universities are able to pay significantly more than the equivalent UK or US salaries to attract overseas talents to work in China. In addition, numerous university teachers in China can easily apply for more research funding than their western counterparts.

Although China is still a developing economy by definition, it has exceeded many western powers in a number of areas such as equipment manufacturing, high-speed railways, nuclear power, construction, infrastructure engineering and space technology. In 2014, Chinese scientists produced the second largest number of high-impact academic journal papers in the world.

China started the first high speed railway 30 years later than Europe, but by 2014, has built 16,000 km of high-speed tracks, twice as long as the total length of all the EU countries put together. BYD, one of China’s private auto makers, has marched to California to build electric buses for the local market.

India is racing to follow in China’s footsteps. Its economy was growing as fast as China in 2014 and is set to overtake China’s growth in 2015. However, India’s transportation systems are so poor that they are evident constraints on the country’s development. It is expected that India will require $1 trillion to improve its transportation systems, and the establishment of AIIB will be helpful to its development needs. Other Asian countries face similar problems of investment for roads, railways, airports, seaports, telecommunications and internet.

AIIB will become a potent propeller to accelerate economic and social development in Asia. Along with the Silk Road Fund and the Brics Bank, China will use AIIB to implement its “one- belt and one-road” regional and global development strategies.

The Silk Road Economic Belt and the 21st Century Sea Silk Road will cover more than 60 countries surrounding China, and many will benefit from China’s outward-looking investment and development strategies. Under Xi Jinping’s leadership, China has gained increased support from neighbouring countries in Asia and many others in Latin America, Europe and Africa, thanks to its persistent foreign policy of peaceful cooperation, mutual benefit and common prosperity.

The future operation of the AIIB may face many challenges and uncertainty, but the AIIB has signified the rapid emergence of China, India and other developing and transitional economies. The determination and confidence for success through the AIIB and other newly created financial institutions suggest that the world financial and political order will be different from now, as the overwhelming dominance of the World Bank and ADB in Asia and the world financial systems will inevitably decline in the future.

The author is a professor of economics, Chongqing University and the University of Nottingham.

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