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重庆大学经济学教授,重庆市首席专家(经济学),长江学者特聘教授。诺丁汉大学当代中国学学院创建院长,经济学教授,著名华裔经济学家,复旦大学和西安交通大学特聘讲座教授,全英中国专业团体联和会副主席,联合国开发计划署和世界银行经济顾问, 到过20个亚非欧国家工作。

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《中国日报》对中国的悲观者为啥总犯错   

2016-02-03 11:35:19|  分类: 默认分类 |  标签: |举报 |字号 订阅

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著名华裔经济学家:国外“唱衰”中国不断,为何总是一错再错?

http://cn.chinadaily.com.cn/2016-02/02/content_23359403.htm

中国日报网姚树洁 2016-02-02 17:04:54

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移动用户编辑短信CD到106580009009,即可免费订阅30天中国日报双语手机报。

2016年的第一个月见证了中国股市遭遇恐慌性抛售以及人民币对美元汇率出人意料的贬值。中国2015年的经济增速也滑落到了25年来的最低。

 “中国经济行将溃败和中国模式走向末路”的预测似乎再次沉渣泛起。但是,回顾中国自上个世纪70年代末到今天的发展道路,就会发现很多的悲观预测,特别是“中国大崩溃”的预测,都被屡次证明是个错误。

1996年,美国农业经济学家莱斯特?布朗预测,中国将无法养活自己庞大和迅速增加的人口,中国的经济改革也将导致营养不良和饥饿。

到了20世纪80年代末和90年代初,很多的“唱衰”中国者预测,只进行经济改革而没有政治改革将导致中国的完全崩溃。在1997-98年亚洲金融危机和2007-08年世界金融危机期间,一些唱衰中国人士又重弹中国模式将难以应对这些剧烈的外部冲击的论调。

所有这些预言都被证实是错误的。2012年来,中国已经转变其经济发展战略,从依赖出口和国外直接投资驱动型的增长,转变到以结构调整、创新和工业升级为重点的内在增长,以避免所谓的“中等收入陷阱”。

因此,中国势必要淘汰钢铁、煤炭和其它污染环境行业的过剩产能,并推动高端领域制造、服务业、城市化和农业现代化。

经济放缓是实施新的发展战略的必然结果。但是考虑到艰难的外部经济环境和上涨的国内要素成本,中国在2015年取得6.9%的经济增长率仍然是全球十大最大经济体中除印度外表现最好的。需要特别指出的是,俄罗斯和巴西经济大幅收缩,其他很多发达国家经济仍在步履艰难地走出危机,中国将继续成为推动全球经济增长强有力的引擎。

那么为何悲观主义者一旦涉及到中国就一错再错呢?

首先,一些悲观人士总是盯着中国的短期挑战,而忽略了长期的发展能力和潜力。短期挑战和困难只是暂时的,只要政府和人民有着必胜的意志就一定能够被克服。

其次,一些悲观人士并不理解中国政府要比他们想的优秀太多,这种政治稳定是中国成功的基石所在。

第三,对中国悲观的人士低估了中国人民的能力与决心。中国人民不仅勤劳智慧,面对各种挑战和冲击时也韧劲十足。

今日中国已不同于以往。中国经济总量已经远超10万亿美元,仅次于美国,接近于日本的两倍和印度的四倍。中国6.9%的发展速度所带来的增量要比印度一年GDP的四分之一还多,比世界上一个中型经济体的总量都大。

中国最富裕的城市深圳是从1980年时的一个小渔村发展起来的,目前它的人口已经超过1000万。深圳的人均GDP已经超过台湾,而且保持每年将近8%的增速。中国人口最大的城市重庆有3000多万人口。重庆的GDP在2015年增长11%,政府计划在2016年实现10%的经济增长。

中国经济的基本面是良好的、强健的:失业率低,国民人均收入增速跑赢GDP,收入差距在缩小,能耗强度在降低。

如果这些悲观主义者在中国,他们将会看到中国所有地区依然在雄心勃勃地制定第十三个五年规划,目标是在2020年全面建成小康社会以及全面消除绝对贫困。十三五规划将使中国经济增速继续远远高于世界上很多其它经济体。

 作者是重庆大学和英国诺丁汉大学经济学教授

 

Why doom predictors always get it wrong when it comes to China

 

http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/opinion/2016-02/01/content_23335779.htm

 

By Yao Shujie (chinadaily.com.cn)Updated: 2016-02-01 10:09

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A stevedore works at Qingdao port in Shandong province, July 1, 2015. [Photo/IC]

The first month of 2016 witnessed the Chinese stock market in panic selling mode and the RMB depreciating unexpectedly against the greenback. China's GDP growth in 2015 also hit a 25-year low.

 There seems to be a new surge of predictions about the "coming collapse of the Chinese economy and the end of the Chinese model". However, looking back at China's development journey from the late 1970s up to today, many pessimistic predictions, especially forecasting the "China breakdown", have been proved wrong.

In 1996, Lester Brown, an American agricultural economist predicted that China would not be able to feed its large and fast-growing population and economic reforms would lead to malnutrition and hunger.

In the late 1980s and early 1990s, many Chinese pessimists predicted that economic reform without political reform would lead to a total collapse of China. In the Asian Financial Crisis of 1997-98 and the World Financial Crisis of 2007-08, many Chinese pessimists predicted that the Chinese model would not be able to sustain those drastic external shocks.

 All those predictions were wrong. Since 2012, China has changed its economic development strategy from export and foreign direct investment driven to endogenous growth which emphasizes internal structural change, innovation and industrial upgrading to escape the so-called middle income trap.

In doing so, China has to eliminate excess industrial production capacity of steel, coal and other environmentally polluting products, and to promote high-end manufacturing, services, urbanization and rural modernization.

 Economic slowdown is an inevitable outcome of the new development strategy, but given the tough external economic environment and surging domestic factor costs, China's growth of 6.9% in 2015 was still the best among the world's 10 largest economies except India. In particular, while the Russian and Brazilian economies are contracting sharply, and while many other developed economies are still struggling to move out of their own crisis, China continues to be a potent engine of growth for the global economy.

 So why do doom predictors always get it wrong when it comes to China?

 Firstly, some pessimists always look at China's short term challenges and ignore its long term development capability and potential. Short term challenges and difficulties are temporal, they can be overcome if the government and the people have a strong will for success.

Secondly, some pessimists do not understand that the Chinese government is far better than they thought, and that political stability is the basic foundation of China's success.

 Thirdly, doom predictors of China underestimate the ability and determination of the Chinese people who are not only hard working and intelligent, but also resilient to all kinds of challenges and shocks.

 China today is different from its past. The economy is well above 10 trillion US dollars, second only to the US, twice as large as Japan, and four times as large as India. A 6.9% growth is more than one-quarter of India's annual GDP, and bigger than a medium-sized economy in the world.

China's richest city, Shenzhen, erected from a small fishing village in 1980, now has a population of over 10 million people. Its per capita GDP is higher than that of Taiwan and is still growing at nearly 8% per year. China's biggest city by population, Chongqing, has over 30 million people. The city's GDP expanded by 11% in 2015 and the government's plan is to achieve 10% growth in 2016.

 The Chinese economic fundamentals are sound and robust: unemployment rate is low, people's incomes are growing faster than GDP, income inequality is narrowing and energy intensity is declining.

If those pessimists were in China, they would see that all the Chinese regions are still ambitious in making their 13th Five Year Plan, which is to sustain China's economic growth at a much higher rate than many other economies in the world. The policy objective is to build an all-round well-off society and to eliminate absolute poverty by 2020.

The author is professor of economics at Chongqing University and Nottingham University.

The opinions expressed here are those of the writer and don't represent views of China Daily website.


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